Completed Economic Development Projects

The Geographical Consequences of the End of Quota Constrained Trade in the Global Apparel Industry
John Pickles and Meenu Tewari–Co-PIs. This project focused on the changing geographies of sourcing, production, and trade occurring in the global apparel industry as a result of quota phase out under the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing.Its purpose is to gain understanding of how new patterns of production and trade, and new forms of economic governance are emerging in response to trade deregulation, how these new institutional and industrial actors interact, cooperate, and compete to shape the emerging post-quota trade regime, and how technology, cognitive frameworks and understandings, as well as geographically specific institutions and agents, are transforming the organization of the industry itself. It also seeks to understand how policies are emerging that have the effect of re-regulating trade regimes (through standards, codes, norms, and compliance monitoring on the one hand and through the imposition of safeguard measures against Chinese imports on the other). Finally, the project questions the conceptual and cognitive frameworks that have shaped understanding of the global commodity chain and value chain, and engages with recent scientific ideas on complex systems, networks, and actors. This project will document the major changes in the volume, direction, and composition of trade in apparel in the past decade and identify the determinants of the patterns of apparel sourcing and production and how these determinants have changed. Researchers had already compiled significant databases on trade, production, and employment in the industry; they surveyed apparel manufacturers in five regions, carrying out follow-up in depth firm level interviews and regional level case studies. Surveys and interviews were coordinated by the research team to ensure cross-case comparability. Interview transcripts will be produced to facilitate compilation of firm-level event histories and case studies. The analysis of the determinants of apparel sourcing was investigated by in-depth interviews with a sample of large retail buyers located in the U.S. and Europe. Results from this project will help state, national, and international agencies better understand the range of actual firm-level responses to post-MFA quota removal that are occurring in the global apparel industry and the roles played by locally specific institutional and industry actors. The research will also enhance scientific understanding of the role of industrial upgrading, workforce quality and costs, and policy instruments in managing employment growth or decline in specific regional contexts. Results of the research will receive broad dissemination in scientific journals and conferences, through a variety of investigator affiliations and websites, through the support of graduate and undergraduate research assistants, and through the development of case study teaching modules. Findings from this project informs researchers and policymakers as they debate trade regulation, international outsourcing, and the trajectories of regional apparel production worldwide. The project advances research collaboration between scholars in three disciplines–geography, planning, and sociology– and provides research opportunities for U.S. and international students and develops methodological and conceptual modules for undergraduate and graduate teaching.

The National Map in a Global Age: A Study of Science, Territoriality, and Governance in the U.S. and Philippines During the Late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries
Scott Kirsch–PI. What is the nature of territoriality in an era characterized by the emergence of new global flows and exchanges that transcend, even as they are structured or regulated by, national boundaries? This question is vital today as it was to problems of governance one hundred years ago when, in the wake of the 1898 Spanish-American War, the U.S. expanded its jurisdictions into the Caribbean and Pacific amidst resistance both at home and abroad. During this period, while extending commercial and military activities and building influence beyond its borders, the U.S. depended on flows of people, goods, and ideas from the outside for economic growth and prosperity within, making the construction of new modes of territoriality—the inclusionary and exclusionary practices meant to influence the nature and content of an area—a practical necessity. This research examined in particular the role of science and scientific modes of representation—including cartography–in the practical and discursive construction of interior, insular, and exterior territories and modes of territoriality. It focused on the work of U.S. federal and colonial scientists and scientific bureaus during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the U.S. and Philippines, where science and education had crucial roles to play in U.S. colonial governance and tutelage. The research explored the intersection of that work with processes of state formation; the creation of national and global markets at a formative stage in U.S. global expansion; and public debates over science, U.S. imperialism, and “insular governance.” The research improves our understanding of the changing dimensions of U.S. territoriality over relatively long historical periods, focusing on the interrelations of science and institutions of governance in effecting these transformations. The research contributed to several publications and projects: An article, “The Allison Commission and the National Map: Towards a Republic of Knowledge in Late Nineteenth-Century America,” in the Journal of Historical Geography 36: 29–42, 2010 and a book co-edited with Colin Flint, Reconstructing Conflict: Integrating War and Post-War Geographies (Ashgate Publishing/Critical Geopolitics Series: Surrey, United Kingdom, 2011). In progress is a second book that deals with early twentieth century construction of American colonial spaces in the Philippines.

Regional Vision Plan Integration and Implementation—Phase II
Harvey Goldstein-PI. This study, funded by the NC Dept of Commerce, will examine the strategic objectives identified in Phase I in terms of successful state-regional cluster development policies, feedback from the North Carolina Office of the State Auditor, and the current service delivery structure of the Department of Commerce. The primary outcome of this effort will be a set of concrete policy goals and recommendations to build more seamless coordination between the North Carolina Department of Commerce and other state and regional economic development organizations. Although this report will be organized around the concept of cluster development, it could have broader implications for state economic development policy and delivery systems.

Doctoral Dissertation Research: Navigating a Changing Europe from Below Activist Cartographies by Social Movements in France and Spain
John Pickles and Sebastian Cobarrubias-CO-PIs. Since the late 1990s and the public emergence of global justice movements, dozens of innovative mapping projects have been undertaken by activist groups. These explorations into new forms of cartography have come from an increasing number of groups in different countries. These maps are engaging questions of increasing relevance not only to social movements but also to geography and other social sciences. The questions are reflective of a series of major transformations including: how to conceive of the global; the restructuring of the global economy, including free-trade blocs and the redrawing of borders and flows; and rethinking public intervention and social movement action. Despite the interest in these issues on the part of geography, and the clear engagement on the part of these activist groups not only with geographical concepts but also with the subfield of cartography, there has been little conversation between the discipline of geography and these efforts. This research will be one of the first engagements with these efforts on the part of geography. Since there are many groups engaging in these mapping practices, two projects in particular will be focused on for the sake of this dissertation due to their influence on other groups, the number of maps they have been able to produce and how referential they are as map-producing groups. These two are the Bureau d’Etudes based in Strasbourg, France and Hackitectura based
in Malaga, Spain.

Regions, Industrial Dominance, and Business Success: An Inquiry into the Geography of Economic Adjustment, Flexibility and Competitiveness
Harvey Goldstein-PI, Ed Feser, UIUC-PI and Joshua Drucker, PhD Candidate. This study, funded by the National Science Foundation, investigates the relationship between a concentrated regional corporate structure—the dominance of a given regional industry by a few large firms—and regional business adaptability and performance. The research will test the hypothesis that manufacturing firms in regions in specific industries dominated by few very large businesses are less productive, other things equal, than firms in the same industries but in regions characterized by less corporate dominance and a broader firm size distribution. The research design combines analysis of secondary data at the micro level with case study research of selected industries and regions in order to maximize the richness and validity of the findings.

Municipal Wealth Accounting
Emil Malizia-PI. This study, funded by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, involved constructing municipal wealth accounts for one jurisdiction as a pilot study. Measuring wealth at the municipal level provides very useful information that answers important questions. What assets does the community have? What are they worth? How have the composition and value of assets, liabilities and net worth changed over time? How do planning regulations influence land values and other components of wealth? How do economic development strategies, especially financial incentives, impact community wealth?

Doctoral Dissertation Research / Navigating a Changing Europe from Below Activist Cartographies by Social Movements in France and Spain
John Pickles and Sebastian Cobarrubias, Ph.D. candidate-Co-PIs. Since the late 1990s and the public emergence of global justice movements, dozens of innovative mapping projects have been undertaken by activist groups. These explorations into new forms of cartography have come from an increasing number of groups in different countries. These maps engage questions of increasing relevance not only to social movements but also to geography and other social sciences. The questions reflect a series of major transformations including: how to conceive of the global; the restructuring of the global economy including free-trade blocs and the redrawing of borders and flows; and rethinking public intervention and social movement action. Despite the interest in these issues on the part of geographers and the clear engagement on the part of these activist groups not only with geographical concepts but also with the subfield of cartogrpahy, there has been little conversation between the discipline of geography and these efforts. This research is one of the first engagements with these efforts on the part of geographers. Since there are many groups engaged in these mapping practices, two projects in particular were focused on for the sake of this research due to their influence on other groups, the number of maps they have been able to produce, and how referential they are as map-producing groups. These two are the Bureau d’Etudes based in Strasbourg, France and Hackitectura based in Malaga, Spain.

Influencing Scientific Standards: The Effects of Biosafety Ordinances on the Intensity of Entrepreneurial Activity
Nichola Lowe-PI. In the past decade, local debate surrounding biotechnology has focused on its role as a potential engine of economic growth. Thirty years ago however, the then nascent industry faced a more challenging set of questions about the health and safety standards of what was then called genetic engineering. To address these concerns, a dozen or so cities throughout the United States had adopted recombinant DNA ordinances by the early 1980s in order to regulate and monitor biotechnology research and commercial activity in their jurisdiction. At the time, local economic developers raised concerns that municipal-level industry regulation would drive out existing (and prospective) biotechnology firms, researchers and investors, however this has not been the case. This proposal outlines research that will systematically examine the influence of local regulations on firm location and growth, especially during the formative years of the biotechnology industry. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative research techniques, we will test the counter hypothesis that locally-enforced industry standards may actually reduce the cost of innovation by lowering risk and uncertainty, thereby increasing the attractiveness of a place to entrepreneurs seeking to commercialize controversial and previously unexploited technologies. Moreover, we hypothesize that public debate may have created community consensus that furthered understanding of the technology and aided the development of the industry. This research may provide strategic insights for entrepreneurs working with new technologies and may offer a new dimension to the phenomena of industrial spatial clustering. In addition, the results may provide policy recommendations for communities that are hoping to encourage entrepreneurship in new, controversial emerging technology areas, for example involving stem cells and nanotechnology. This study is funded by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

Transitioning to the New Economy: Early Lessons from North Carolina’s Biomanufacturing Training Program
Nichola Lowe and Harvey Godlstein, Co-PIs. This project, funded by the North Carolina Biotechnology Center, is designed to evaluate the impact of North CarolinaA?s BioWork training program on job placement and career transition. The results of this study will be made available to college and university administrators and instructors, industry representatives and government agencies with the goal of strengthening existing training and educational supports in biotechnology and biomanufacturing. New job creation in knowledge intensive industries, such as biotechnology, has mostly benefited highly educated individuals with advanced degrees in science, mathematics and engineering. North CarolinaA?s BioWork training program is unique in its attempt to make the transition to the knowledge economy more socially inclusive by providing high school degree holder with core skills in bioprocessing. The central goal of this research project is to evaluate the impact of the BioWork program on trainee job placement and career advancement. This research is motivated by the following three questions: How effective are counties at using retraining to prepare for job creation in biotechnology and biomanufacturing? How accessible is the BioWork program to displaced workers and other disadvantaged socio-economic groups? Why are some counties more effective than others in extending BioWork training support and job placement services to the most vulnerable? The results of this study will be used to inform current training policy in the state, as well as make recommendations for additional support services that will help members of disadvantaged socio-economic groups, especially displaced traditional sector workers, secure manufacturing jobs in life sciences.We are proposing a prototype longitudinal study of 125 BioWork trainees from six counties in the state. We will conduct a survey and a follow-up interview with this cohort of trainees at two different points over the next year, February and October 2006. Additional funding sources will be secured to conduct follow-up interviews with the same training cohort in October 2007. During these interviews, we will gather information on the employment status of trainees and changes in status that occur over time. Such changes include job promotion, job relocation or temporary job stoppage due to additional education and training. Less favorable changes might include a job loss and/or a shift to an unrelated sector due to initial difficulties with biomanufacturing job placement. Interviews will be designed to identify factors that might influence changes in employment status overtime or result in increases in BioWork drop-out rates. We will consider trainee characteristics, as well as cross-county and cross-institutional differences. We will analyze our research findings using a mix of qualitative and quantitative techniques.

Doctoral dissertation research: Analysis of the Relationship between the Processes of Outsourcing of Italian Textile and Clothing Firms and the Emergence of Industrial Districts in Eastern Europe
John Pickles, UNC-PI, & Christian Sellar, PhD Candidate. This dissertation research, funded by the National Science Foundation, focuses on the outsourcing of clothing and textile industries from industrial districts in Italy to emerging industrial districts in Eastern Europe, where Italian textile and clothing firms are explicitly attempting to develop industrial districts in and around their new investments. The aim of this work is twofold: first, I shall investigate the patterns of Italian outsourcing of textile and clothing industries and assess the impacts of the outsourcing on institutional arrangements, business networks and practices in selected Eastern European host areas; and second, I shall assess the extent to which these practices of clustering and networking are transforming forms of industrial governance, local economies, and economic competitiveness within the broader economy.The most important theoretical contribution of this work will be to bridge the literatures on outsourcing and industrial districts. In some areas of Eastern Europe networks of small and medium enterprises are emerging. In several cases, local governments are hoping to deepen those networks and districts through explicit regional and industrial policies to sustain economic growth and development. In so doing, these state and regional government agencies are explicitly modeling their efforts on Italian ‘industrial districts’ in the 1970s and 1980s. Concomitantly, Italian firms have recently been extending their investments in key places in Central and Eastern Europe, and in doing so they have been exacting commitments from local businesses and governments to supporting the backward and forward linkages they see as essential to effective industrial strategy. This project will investigate and assess the ways in which this is happening and the consequences for industrial and regional development. The project focuses on key sites where Italian investors have committed to these broader industrial and regional programs.

Doctoral dissertation research: Refashioning Transnational Spaces: The Case of Textiles and Apparel in Kenya
John Pickles, UNC-PI, & Tina Mangieri, PhD Candidate. This dissertation research, funded by the National Science Foundation, focuses on Kenya and examines the structure of and inter-relationships among its three main systems of international clothing production: (i) “African” print cloth with its own transnational histories of design, production, and trade; (ii) export-oriented mass produced clothing primarily for large Western markets; and (iii) imported secondhand clothing sourced from those same markets. The project has three central questions: 1) What are the historical geographies of clothing production and consumption in Kenya? 2) How are production, distribution, and consumption of cloth and clothing organized by and for the Kenyan market? 3) How do conceptions of identity (based on gender, class, and religion) articulate with global commodity chains of textiles and apparel to generate alternative geographies of modernity and globalization? These three clothing systems and their interrelated production networks illustrate new geographies of global economic and cultural integration. In particular, this research deals with fundamental questions in global economic geography by focusing on historical and contemporary networks of trade and production between countries of the global South. Issues of South-South trade and the role of domestic markets are greatly under-represented in the contemporary literature on global apparel. Yet, understanding the broader contexts within which clothing production and consumption relations and networks are produced and sustained is vital if we are to avoid naturalizing notions like ‘competitiveness.’ Similarly, attention to these contexts is needed to provide conceptual alternatives to normative understandings of globalization as fundamentally limited to Western practices and experiences.

An Investigation of the Ecology of Business Start-Up Survival
PI- Henry RenskiI & Ed Feser, Faculty Advisor. This project, funded by the National Science Foundation, will utilize a newly developed national micro-level longitudinal data source and several complementary modeling approaches to investigate the relationship between Marshallian externalities and rates of new business establishment survival. My research will identify new firm births (start-ups) from administrative records at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in Washington DC and follow their life cycle until the either close or reach the current period. I will estimate the influence of Marshallian externalities on the probability of start-up survival and the life-duration using well-established large-scale econometric methods. The existence of Marshallian externalities are hypothesized to have positive benefits for firm productivity and innovation, and thus should lead to higher survival rates. Although of great interest to researchers, this specific topic has not yet been explored in the empirical literature. The findings of my work will help for economic development policy makers design strategies to improve entrepreneurial success. No testing on human subjects will be involved in this research, and per US BLS rules, no data or information will be released that identifies any individual or company.

Studies to Improve Statewide Employment Projections
PI- Harvey Goldstein, Funded by the Nevada Dept. of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. The proposed research project aims to supply analyses that can be of direct assistance to states’ projection efforts. It consists of three parts: (a) analysis of the variation in demographic composition of occupational employment across states, from the 2000 decennial Census; (b) evaluation of the accuracy of state 2000 industry employment projections; and (c) analysis of alternative strategies for how states might develop long-term industry employment projections with changes in time-series data from the conversion to NAICS coding.

Doctoral Dissertation: When Technology Spillovers are Localized: Importance of Technological and Regional Attributes
Co-PIs- Harvey Goldstein & Jun Koo, Funded by the National Science Foundation. What are determinants of sustained long-run regional economic growth? Why does one region grow faster than another? These are major questions posed in the regional science and regional development literature. R&D activities, innovations, and subsequent technological changes and spillovers are the most important factors, which have intrigued many researchers in the field. New growth theory emphasizes the role of technology spillovers and subsequent scale effects, which lead to increasing returns to scale and long-term growth. However, R&D and innovations may not be sufficient conditions for regional growth. Although R&D has been considered the most important factor contributing to technological progress and hence productivity increase through spillover effects, when it comes to regional economies, R&D itself does not automatically guarantee technology spillovers within regions, which would eventually drive regional economic growth. A new innovation introduced in California can be picked up and implemented in North Carolina and vice versa. That is, what is more important to regional economies is the degree to which externalities created by innovative activities are localized within geographical boundaries. There is now strong evidence in the literature that R&D activities and consequent new innovations are the source of productivity growth, and technology spillovers, which lie at the center of this mechanism, are often localized. The objective of this research is to examine technological and regional attributes that carry significant influence on geographical technology spillovers. Given the fact that one of the most important factors affecting regional growth is geographically transferred technology spillovers, the study mainly focuses on what kinds of technological and regional attributes affect the degree to which technology spillovers, associated with new innovations, are localized and how much. Utilizing the US Patent and Trademark Office patent citation data and the County Business Patterns file and applying the simultaneous equation modeling technique, the study attempts to explain the relative importance of technological and regional attributes to the localization of technology spillovers.

Comparative Regional Policy and Development in an Era of Territorial Integration
PI- Harvey Goldstein, Funded by the US Dept of Education. The project objectives are: improving the knowledge base of regional development policy, building student capacities to use distance technologies, and strengthening universities’ capacities to use shared instructional resources. A yearlong Core Certificate Module consists of five components: 1. Home University Courses, 2. Distance Courses, 3. Common Case Study projects, 4. Continental Integration Seminars, and 5. Intern/work Policy Laboratory.

The New Economy: Indicators of State Industry Employment Growth
PI- Harvey Goldstein, Funded by the Nevada Dept. of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. The proposed ALMIS Long-Term research project will identify and then incorporate indicators of long term economic development capacity into the framework of the Long-Term Projections Model. The objective of the research will be to improve the accuracy of long-term industry employment projections by identifying and making available to state analysts a set of new variables and indicators that are more strongly associated (correlated) with employment growth than the existing set of variables. Tasks The specific tasks of the project will include: (1) a survey of the new economy indicators available at national, state, and substate levels, and an analysis of the correlation of these indicators and industry employment change using data for one or two selected states; (2) testing of the improvement of single equation regression models when incorporating the most promising indicators as independent variables from (1); (3) development of a simple leading indicators model using various ratio methods, and that would be included in the UP model as additional options under the umbrella of share and shift-share techniques. Linking Econometric and Demographic Models to the Long-Term Projections System and New Projections Guidebook.

Collaborative Research: The Clustering of US Business Enterprises in the 1990s
PI- Edward Feser, Funded by the National Science Foundation. Recently, there has been a notable revival of interest in the role spatial clustering among firms plays in ensuring competitive economies (e.g., through traditional agglomeration economies, knowledge spillovers, or other advantages of proximity). On the one hand, new growth and trade theories highlight the role of social increasing returns and externalities as drivers of national and regional growth. A number of studies suggest that such externalities are spatial in origin and there has therefore been increased attention to issues of geography among some traditional economists (e.g., Krugman 1991, 1998). On the other hand, new technologies – particularly in the area of telecommunications and the Internet – suggest that spatially binding ties among firms may be weakening. That has raised the issue of whether economic activity is likely to disperse rather than cluster over time (Gaspar and Glaeser 1998). This project will utilize point process modeling techniques and confidential micro data to investigate factors driving clustering of U.S. businesses. The study focuses on two principal questions. First, do firms cluster in response to geographical spillovers or externalities? The study uses a case control design and two complementary methodologies – one based on the D-statistic framework of Diggle and Chetwynd (1991) and the other based on recently developed spatial duration models (e.g., Pellegrini and Reader 1996, Pellegrini and Grant 1999) – to isolate spillovers from other factors influencing clustering. Second, if there is evidence of clustering related to spillovers, at least in some industries or groups of industries, does it appear to be strengthening or weakening over time? Analysis for successive periods will identify clustering trends and lay the groundwork for a more integrated space-time analysis to be carried out in subsequent research.

NC Department of Commerce-UNC Chapel Hill 2003 Economic Development Policy Internship Program
PI- Edward Feser, Funded by the NC Department of Commerce. This project will provide economic development policy and research internship opportunities to masters and doctoral students at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The interns will work in the Division of Policy, Research and Strategic Planning at the North Carolina Department of Commerce, where they will provide policy analysis and research support on projects related to the activities of the North Carolina Economic Development Board, the North Carolina Board of Science and Technology, and DOC’s Division of Policy, Research and Strategic Planning. The program will provide students with a unique opportunity to gain real-world experience in economic development while also bringing the latest training, concepts, and research methodologies to bear on economic development problems facing the State of North Carolina.

The Transformation of Mature Industries in the US South: The Case of North Carolina’s Furniture Industry
PI- Meenu Tewari, Funded by the University Research Council (UNC-Chapel Hill). This application is a request for seed funds to initiate a new research project on the internationalization of production and its impact on local incomes, employment and regional industrial competitiveness. As detailed below, the proposed study will use the furniture industry in High Point, North Carolina as the initial, illustrative case study. My aim is to use the funds to collect pilot data for the new project, including conducting interviews and field-research in High Point, North Carolina. The goal of the initial pilot study is to (1) develop a full-fledged proposal for comparative research on this topic for submission to external funders by Summer 2001, and (2) to publish at least one paper based on the project’s initial findings by next year.

Urban Redevelopment Financing Strategies: Continuing Research and Training
PI-Emil Malizia, Funded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The Principal Investigator (PI) will conduct research and a training workshop under the auspices of CAD that will focus on the economic and financial aspects of commercial redevelopment projects in under-served, inner-city areas. This work should help participants of public-private partnerships mobilize the debt, equity, and equity-equivalent funding need to finance such projects.

Alternatives for Artisan Cities en Crisis: The Case of Indigenous Textile Micro Enterprises in Otavalo
PI- Meenu Tewari, Funded by the Inter-America Development Bank. The objectives of this paper are: (i) to revise literature cases of artisan cities of small and medium size with a dominant economic sector in crisis and (ii) to draw from the referred literature policy recommendations that the Bank can implement through its projects. Specifically, the paper is meant to provide the Bank with inputs and a logical frame useful to develop a further project in Otavalo. The paper will focus on: (i) how firms in artisan cities of small and medium size with a dominant economic sector in crisis upgrade their production and integrate forward and backwards into value adding activities such as design, marketing and packaging; (ii) how to reach out high-end markets and find out new commercialization channels; (iii) which programs and policies adopted by Municipality and State Government helped remove obstacles to competitiveness; and (iv) how to encourage and to promote technology spread among firms. The work is meant to draw lessons to apply in Bank’s projects. The paper has to refer specifically to textile and garment industry cases that present either a decentralized production structure, based on sub-contracting, or a more classical one.

Squeezed Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Changes in Employment Practices in the Hosiery Industry
PI- Rachel Willis, Funded by Bowdoin College. In the proposed study we will consider the substantial variation in “coping mechanisms” that firms have used to hold on in this extremely competitive environment and how these “coping mechanisms” affect manufacturing workers’ lives. We will collect information about competition-induced changes in human resource policy through interviews with human resource officers and other key personnel at 20 existing firms in the same local labor market, Hickory, North Carolina. Most of the hosiery manufacturing industry in the United States is located in North Carolina with more than 60 firms currently operating in the Hickory area. We will also conduct focus group interviews with workers at each location. In addition, we plan to interview executives from firms that have left the industry as well as hosiery industry leaders such as the Director of the Hosiery Technology Center. These “case studies” will complement our previous research in which we interviewed more than 900 workers at three hosiery manufacturing firms in the Hickory area over a three year period, 1996-1998, collecting demographic and employment data as well as information on worker participation in selected company benefits.

Migration and the State Occupational Employment Projections Process
PI- Harvey Goldstein, Funded by the Employment Security Commission. The proposed research consists of three major tasks: (1) create adjusted out-migration and in-migration estimates by occupation for all 50 states while resolving small sample problems for small states; (2) analyze the contribution of out-migration and net-migration to the generation of total new job openings, by occupation for 6-8 selected states; and (3) develop recommended protocols and guidelines for using the estimates of job openings due to out-migration and net-migration within the occupational employment projections process.

Industry Clusters and Technology Policy Development in Kentucky
PI- Edward Feser, Funded by the Kentucky Science & Technology Corp. This study will produce a comprehensive profile of Kentucky’s key manufacturing and nonmanufacturing clusters and identify general technology actions supported by Kentucky business leaders and public officials. It utilizes a quantitative methodology originally developed for an analysis of North Carolina’s economy that has subsequently been used to investigate interindustry relationships and trends in other regions and states both in the U.S. and Europe. The empirical work will be supplemented with a qualitative industry analysis tool designed to determine 1) competitiveness across sectors as reported by regional businesses and leaders, and 2) potential policy actions and enabling infrastructure necessary to nurture targeted industry clusters.

An Assessment of North Carolina’s Industry and Higher Education Technology Strengths and Opportunities
PI- Edward Feser & Michael Luger, Funded by the NC ACTS & the NC Board of Science and Technology. The proposed project will (1) identify the strengths of North Carolina’s knowledge base, as embodied in the universities and their affiliated R&D houses and labs, local federal R&D operations, medical centers, and industry, currently and in terms of potential, (2) evaluate the impact of alternative potential changes in federal research and development funding on these institutions, and (3) advise policymakers in the private and public sector about strategic investments that they could make that are consistent with the existing and emerging knowledge base, and which would continue to make the state more competitive for Federal investments and initiatives. The research team will utilize secondary data, an economic impact model, structured interviews, and a conference to accomplish the objectives of the project. It will be assisted by an advisory board consisting of economic development and business experts from several universities, including UNC-CH, NC State University, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, North Carolina A&T University, and the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Varied disciplines will be represented on the research team and board, including economics, public policy, city and regional planning, business, technology, and medicine. The project will culminate with a full report, 5-7 page policy summary, and a set of visual materials for presentation of the primary research findings and recommendations.

Linking Econometric & Demographic Models to the Long-Term Projections System
PI- Harvey Goldstein, Funded by the Employment Security Commission. The proposed research project consists of two independent parts. The first involves enhancing the Long-Term Projection (LTP) System to better take into account the complexity of economic-demographic variable relationships, including the capacity to be linked with state econometric models. The second part is to write a new industry employment projections reference monograph that is based upon the projection techniques incorporated in the LTP system.

New Investment Strategies For The Inner Cities- An Educational Proposal
PI-Emil Malizia, Funded by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. The proposed workshop will bring together groups interested in inner-city revitalization for the purpose of generating new investment strategies that promise to attract the private equity needed to capitalize urban redevelopment projects. Workshop participants will be assigned to small, diverse groups that will each examine alternative investment scenarios, consider ways to increase the capital available for redevelopment projects, and propose the most attractive inner-city investment strategies to workshop participants. The proposed project includes formulating alternative investment scenarios to be considered by workshop participants and planning the workshop, which includes selecting regional location, arranging appropriate sponsorship, and finalizing workshop financing and logistics.

Consumer Preferences for Residential Development Services
PI-Emil Malizia, Funded by the National Multi-Housing Council. The objective of this project is to determine consumer preferences for different residential site plans and designs. The ideal information would compare residential preferences for a baseline site plan showing a typical residential subdivision with one-quarter acre lots and cul-de-sac streets to preferences for alternative site plans and physical arrangements. These alternatives would accommodate the same population and offer similar amounts of living space but would cluster development in higher densities and in ways that preserved accessible common arm in open space. Credible information on consumer preferences should enable both property owners and public regulators to determine how well their objectives would be met by alternative site plans and arrangements. If proposals for “smart growth” are to have currency, they must enable property owners and developers to earn satisfactory risk-adjusted returns while the public is able to realize the social benefits and efficiencies of more compact development. We believe that useful information on residential preferences exists in results from visual preference surveys, housing preference studies, and residentially oriented research. The major tasks are to identify and review materials that contain information on this subject, cull out the relevant findings, and evaluate the information. We expect to find few studies directly on point but many studies that contain a limited amount of useful information.

Study of the Impact of Tryon Palace on its Region and the State of North Carolina
PI- Edward Feser, Funded by the NC Dept of Cultural Resources. This project will examine the broad impact of Tryon Palace on the New Bern community and the state as a whole in both quantitative and qualitative terms. The quantitative impact analysis will focus on documenting the output, income, and employment impacts of Tryon Palace based on current and projected levels of visitation as well as projected expansions to the facility. The qualitative impact analysis will document, to the degree possible, the linkages of Tryon Palace with its region and any subsequent public benefits those linkages have generated. Possible beneficial linkages include the indirect support of Tryon Palace (through the Kellenberger Foundation) for local capital improvement and city revitalization projects, the degree to which Tryon Palace represents an important tourist draw for the New Bern area, the degree to which Tryon Palace is an important source of leadership -in the New Bern community, and the role of Tryon Palace in supporting primary and secondary education as well as continued scholarship in North Carolina history.

Regional Impact Analysis of the Federal Express Hub
PI- Edward Feser, Funded by the Regional Technology Strategies, Inc. This project will examine the economic and spatial impacts of the pending location of the Federal Express mid-Atlantic hub in the Piedmont Triad region. The study will determine the following: 1) the estimated total direct and indirect economic impact, disaggregated by sector and occupation, of the projected localized construction and operating expenditures of Federal Express Corporation; and 2) the projected spatial land use impacts of the location of the hub in the Greensboro area, including changes in residential, commercial, and industrial land use and potential infrastructure bottlenecks and needs. The project is supported by Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation and the Joseph M. Bryan Foundation through a sub-contract with Regional Technology Strategies, Incorporated.

1998 International Regional Science and Technology Policy Research Conference
PI- Michael Luger, Funded by the National Science Foundation. NSF support is sought for the United States to host the 1998 Regional Science and Technology Policy Research Conference, also known as RESTPOR. This would be the fourth in a series of international conferences that have brought together key government officials, scholars and business and industry leaders to discuss and examine technology trends, their policy implications for geographic regions, and public policy. The objectives of the conference are to contribute to interdisciplinary and international comparative research on topics at the intersection of science and technology and regional economic development, and to foster meaningful interaction and mutual understanding among academic, governmental, and industrial leaders. The ’98 RESTPOR conference is scheduled for May 10-13, 1998, at the Friday Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is the lead academic sponsor. The title of the proposed conference is The Information Society and Regional Development and Restructuring (Key words: information, regional development, and restructuring). Each key area will be a focal point for workshops, plenary sessions and interaction among the participants. Concept papers will be solicited for presentation to and discussion by the participants. Those papers and other conference proceedings will then be published. The volume will contribute to the academic literature and help inform policy, especially in the areas of economic development, labor and welfare, regulation, trade, and taxation. RESTPOR ’98 will extend the contributions of the earlier conferences hosted by Japan and the European Union. Significant staff support will be required to coordinate and implement Organizing Committee efforts, conduct research, solicit and respond to concept papers, prepare local arrangements for the conference and prepare the conference proceeding for publication. A meeting of the Organizing Committee is planned for the summer of 1997 to finalize various topics to be discussed under each of the themes, and address goals of international participation and additional fund raising. Support from NSF is required to supplement local and private funding for all phases of the conference. An NSF presence is important, as well, for symbolic reasons. Financial support is needed for the planning phase, to support personnel, plan a meeting of the organizing committee, to underwrite administrative costs, and to design, print and distribute conference brochures. Support is also needed for facility rental and to sponsor selected participants in keeping with the practice of the previous RESTPOR conferences. After the conference, NSF support is needed to edit, print and disseminate the conference proceedings.

1998 International Regional Science and Technology Policy Research Conference
PI- Michael Luger, Funded by the NCACTS. Support is sought from the North Carolina Department of Commerce, Division of Community Assistance for the United States to host the 1998 Regional Science and Technology Policy Research Conference, also known as RESTPOR. This would be the fourth in a series of international conferences that have brought together key government officials, scholars and business and industry leaders to discuss and examine technology trends, their policy implications for geographic regions, and public policy. The objectives of the conference are to contribute to interdisciplinary and international comparative research on topics at the intersection of science and technology and regional economic development, and to foster meaningful interaction and mutual understanding among academic, governmental, and industrial leaders. The ’98 RESTOR conference is scheduled for May 10-13, 1998, at the Friday Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is the lead academic sponsor. The title of the proposed conference is The Information Society and Regional Development and Restructuring (Key words: information, regional development, and restructuring). Each key area will be a focal point for workshops, plenary sessions and interaction among the participants. Concept papers will be solicited for presentation to and discussion by the participants. Those papers and other conference proceedings will then be published. The volume will contribute to the academic literature and help inform policy, especially in the areas of economic development, labor and welfare, regulation, trade and taxation. RESTPOR ’98 will extend the contributions of the earlier conferences hosted by Japan and the European Union. Significant staff support will be required to coordinate and implement Organizing Committee efforts, conduct research, solicit and respond to concept papers, prepare local arrangements for the conference and prepare the conference proceeding for publication. A meeting of the Organizing Committee is planned for the summer of 1997 to finalize various topics to be discussed under each of the themes, and address goals of international participation and additional fund raising. Support from the North Carolina Department of Commerce, Division of Community Assistance is required to supplement local and private funding for all phases of the conference. Financial support is needed for the planning phase, to support personnel, plan a meeting of the organizing committee, to underwrite administrative costs, and to design, print and distribute conference brochures. Support is also needed for facility rental and to sponsor selected participants in keeping with the practice of the previous RESTPOR conferences. After the conference, support is needed to edit, print and disseminate the conference proceedings.

Infrequent Assessments Distort Property Taxes: Theory and Evidence
PI- Koleman Strumpf, Funded by the Lincoln Institute. This project considers the influence of assessment practices upon property taxes. In the first part of the work I develop a theoretical framework which indicates that short delays between reassessments should increase taxes while longer delays will decrease taxes. The second part is an empirical application on a sample of Pennsylvania municipalities in the Philadelphia suburbs Preliminary estimations suggest that even a five year gap between reevaluations result in property taxes which are ten percent above their socially optimal level. This work can potentially explain why many people believe property taxes are excessive and can only be reduced with a formal tax limit. The work also has broader implications relating to the level of capital gains taxes.

The Impacts of Recent Residential Development on Public Schools in North Carolina Urban Areas: Single-Family Housing Compared to Apartments
PI-Emil Malizia, Funded by the APT. Association of NC. The PI will examine one very important public impact–the impact of new residential development on public school enrollment. Local jurisdictions and the state incur both capital and operating costs when school district enrollment increases The research involves 1) surveying residents of recently completed single-family subdivisions and apartment complexes in five North Carolina urban areas, 2) analyzing the characteristics of these households, and 3) comparing the number of school-age children from single-family dwellings to the number from apartments. The PI will develop a survey instrument to solicit the information. The survey will request information on the number of children in the household, their current ages, the public schools in which they may be enrolled, and background information on the household. The survey will be conducted by telephone.